我已经跟随SpaceX的IPO超过10年，计划在IPO日投入大量资金并持有10-15年。
但基于当前的估值，我认为它已经非常高了，我很难将其与现实的前景收益联系起来。虽然我对长期故事有信心，但我正在质疑风险调整后的收益是否仍然能够抵消入场价格，或者收益更有可能是稳固但不出色（例如，IRR低于典型的“全垒打”结果）。
我很好奇你对IPO日市值进行评估时会如何思考。我们应该从第一天开始行动，还是等待1M-6M的表现？
以下是最高市值的公司，及其市场和表现的例子：
| 排名 | 公司 | IPO 年 | 交易所 | IPO 日市值 | IPO 价格 | 1 周 | 1 周 % | 1 月 | 1 月 % | 1 年 | 1 年 % | 今天 | 今天 % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 沙特阿拉伯石油公司 | 2019 | Tadawul | ~$1.70T | $8.53 | $9.40 | +10.2% | $9.33 | +9.4% | $9.35 | +9.6% | ~$7.2 | -15% |
| 2 | 阿里巴巴 | 2014 | NYSE | ~$168B | $68 | $89.89 | +32.2% | $102.94 | +51.4% | $79.50 | +16.9% | ~$130 | +91% |
| 3 | SoftBank Corp. | 2018 | 东京 | ~$72B | ¥1,500 | ¥1,282 | -14.5% | ¥1,250 | -16.7% | ¥1,465 | -2.3% | ~¥220 | -85% |
| 4 | Meta Platforms | 2012 | NASDAQ | ~$104B | $38 | $31 | -18.4% | $27.72 | -27.1% | $24.31 | -36% | ~$640 | +1580% |
| 5 | Visa | 2008 | NYSE | ~$44B | $44 | $66 | +50% | $62 | +40.9% | $85 | +93.2% | ~$390 | +786% |
| 6 | 通用汽车 | 2010 | NYSE | ~$50B | $33 | $35.50 | +7.6% | $36.25 | +9.8% | $24.50 | -25.8% | ~$52 | +58% |
| 7 | 乌버 | 2019 | NYSE | ~$82B | $45 | $41.60 | -7.6% | $43.75 | -2.8% | $32.79 | -27.1% | ~$102 | +127% |
| 8 | 瑞维安 | 2021 | NASDAQ | ~$77B | $78 | $122.99 | +57.7% | $104.67 | +34.2% | $32.80 | -57.9% | ~$15 | -81% |
| 9 | Airbnb | 2020 | NASDAQ | ~$86B | $68 | $139.25 | +104.8% | $146 | +114.7% | $165 | +142.6% | ~$171 | +152% |
| 10 | Snowflake | 2020 | NYSE | ~$70B | $120 | $253.93 | +111.6% | $390 | +225% | $315 | +162.5% | ~$210 | +75% |
| 11 | Coinbase | 2021 | NASDAQ | ~$86B | $250 | $342 | +36.8% | $298 | +19.2% | $53.7 | -78.5% | ~$295 | +18% |
| 12 | Robinhood | 2021 | NASDAQ | ~$32B | $38 | $55 | +44.7% | $44.5 | +17.1% | $13.7 | -63.9% | ~$61 | +61% |
| 13 | DoorDash | 2020 | NYSE | ~$39B | $102 | $189.5 | +85.8% | $175 | +71.6% | $131 | +28.6% | ~$198 | +94% |
| 14 | Arm Holdings | 2023 | NASDAQ | ~$54B | $51 | $63.6 | +24.7% | $54.7 | +7.2% | $124 | +143.1% | ~$148 | +190% |
| 15 | NTT DoCoMo | 1998 | 东京 | ~$75B | ¥3.9M | ¥4.5M | +15.4% | ¥4.3M | +10.3% | ¥2.8M | -28.2% | Delisted | — |
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