我之前读了 Joel Greenblatts 的《超预期:如何挑选超额股利高股》(The Little Book That Beats the Market)一书,于去年决定尝试使用原始公式来挑选股票。
如果你还没有读过这本书,那么总的来说这个理念是挑选那些价格合理且回报高的股票,并对这些股票进行排名并选择前30(或50)家。挑选股票的难点在于,每年年底重新计算并调整整个投资组合,无论股票是否盈利或亏损都需要重新计算。
我决定尝试了这个策略,经过一年,我想分享一下我的结果。
但是首先,请看我的设置:
2025年4月28日,我在Magic Formula网站上使用了股票筛选工具,并选择了30只股票,每只股票的市值至少100亿美元,总金额为£5,000。然后我将它们全部投入到了T212 Pie中,每个股票约占4%,有几只股票的占比为3%。
一年后的结果如下:
35.48%
我将我的数据表附在下面,表中显示了我的前30只股票(左边)和今年再次挑选的30只股票(右边)。表中对比栏的股票,表示它们在今年一年中停了股。右侧显示了今年再次进入投资组合的11只股票。
| 2025/26 | 值 | 2026/27 | 更新 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Abercrombie & Fitch Co | 21.22% | BioCryst Pharmaceuticals Inc (BCRX) | |
| AMC Networks Inc | 27.46% | Black Diamond Therapeutics Inc (BDTX) | |
| biote Corp | -18.06% | Bumble Inc (BMBL) | Yes |
| Buckle Inc (The) | 56.49% | Cerence Inc (CRNC) | |
| Bumble Inc (BMBL) | -3.66% | CGI Inc (GIB) | |
| Collegium Pharmaceutical Inc (COLL) | 18.60% | Collegium Pharmaceutical Inc (COLL) | Yes |
| Consensus Cloud Solutions Inc | 31.95% | CorMedix Inc (CRMD) | |
| Crocs Inc (CROX) | 8.04% | Crocs Inc (CROX) | Yes |
| Entrada Therapeutics Inc | 38.48% | Enghouse Systems Ltd (EGHSF) | |
| Franklin Covey Co. | 1.82% | EverQuote Inc (EVER) | |
| GDEV Inc | 43.87% | GAMBLING DOT COM GROUP LTD (GAMB) | |
| GigaCloud Technology Inc | 235.32% | H&R Block Inc (HRB) | |
| Harmony Biosciences Holdings Inc (HRMY) | 6.65% | Harmony Biosciences Holdings Inc (HRMY) | Yes |
| Heidrick & Struggles International Inc | 51.33% | HP Inc (HPQ) | Yes |
| HP Inc (HPQ) | -19.28% | Ironwood Pharmaceuticals Inc (IRWD) | Yes |
| Innoviva Inc | 26.55% | Keros Therapeutics Inc (KROS) | |
| Interpublic Group of Cos Inc (The) | 11.32% | MediaAlpha Inc (MAX) | |
| Ironwood Pharmaceuticals Inc (IRWD) | 313.58% | MTY Food Group Inc (MTYFF) | |
| J Jill Inc | -16.58% | Phoenix Education Partners Inc (PXED) | |
| Pediatrix Medical Group Inc | 85.70% | Playtika Holding Corp (PLTK) | Yes |
| Perdoceo Education Corp | 29.08% | PTC Therapeutics Inc (PTCT) | |
| Playtika Holding Corp (PLTK) | -34.45% | Puma Biotechnology Inc (PBYI) | Yes |
| Puma Biotechnology Inc (PBYI) | 154.12% | Rigel Pharmaceuticals Inc (RIGL) | |
| Shutterstock Inc (SSTK) | 1.20% | SBC Medical Group Holdings Inc (SBC) | |
| SIGA Technologies Inc | -21.43% | Shutterstock Inc (SSTK) | Yes |
| Sirius XM Holdings Inc | 21.81% | The Arena Group Holdings Inc (AREN) | |
| TEGNA Inc | 35.32% | TriNet Group Inc (TNET) | |
| Travelzoo | -0.83% | Unisys Corp (UIS) | Yes |
| Unisys Corp (UIS) | -20.75% | Vaxart Inc (VXRT) | |
| Xponential Fitness Inc (XPOF) | -20.59% | Xponential Fitness Inc (XPOF) | Yes |
| Closing fund increase | 35.48% |
这是我的第一次尝试这个策略,并将继续下去,我还将增加资金。
我知道这是一个长期策略,期望好坏年份会交替出现,并不把一个好的年份当作是证明自己挑选股票的能力的依据。计划在至少10年中观察结果。
目前这个结果我认为是好的开局,或许我会在下一年再次更新一下。
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